Every Presidential election year, buyers and sellers ask the same question: should I wait until after the election? After 43+ years watching Tampa Bay through 10+ election cycles, our team can tell you the data is clear — elections produce a small, short ripple, not a meaningful shift.
What history actually shows
Home sales typically dip slightly in November of an election year — some buyers and sellers pause briefly during the uncertainty. By December, activity rebounds. In 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales rose the following year.
What about prices?
Home prices have historically continued to rise through and after every Presidential election. There is no statistically meaningful price drop tied to the election itself. Prices follow broader fundamentals: supply, demand, employment, mortgage rates.
What about mortgage rates?
Rates have historically declined slightly from August through November in election years. But the move is small, and the Fed’s actual interest-rate decisions matter far more than the election itself.
What to do
- If your life timing says buy now, do not wait for the election
- If you are selling, list in spring or early summer of the election year — activity is typically strong through October
- Watch the Fed’s rate decisions, not the polls
The bottom line
Elections produce headlines, not material changes to the Tampa Bay real estate market. Our team is happy to walk through what is actually happening in your submarket right now.