Recession concerns prompt Tampa Bay buyers and sellers to ask: would a recession crash home prices? After 43+ years through multiple recessions, our team can tell you the answer is almost always no.
Historical data
Of the last six U.S. recessions, prices fell significantly in only one: 2008. Every other recession saw prices hold or rise.
2008 was a crash, not a recession effect
Caused by subprime lending and oversupply. Today’s market does not look like 2008.
What a recession typically brings
- Slower job growth, but employment remains
- Lower mortgage rates often follow
- Some buyer hesitation, then resumed activity
- Sellers may adjust pricing modestly
The Tampa Bay picture
Florida net migration continues regardless of recession. Coastal supply remains constrained. The factors that support our prices are not recession-sensitive.
The bottom line
A recession would soften the market but is very unlikely to crash it. Our team is happy to walk through current dynamics.